Buy Recommendation: Ambarella "AMBA"

It has been more than 6 months since my last post. Honestly, some of my recommendation makes good return and some are not.

Today I am going to recommend a buy on Ambarella stock quote AMBA because it is a very profitable stock with growing revenue quarter to quarter and huge cash without debt.

I believe in 3-6 months time, AMBA will hit at least $20 which is almost a 70% gain from the level.

Good luck to those with follow my recommendation.

After many years of trading NYSE and Nasdaq market, and many white hairs have start growing on my head, I begin to feel that I may be right this time!

Good luck and Happy Trading!

Dead Cat Bounce? Vocus Inc ("VOCS")

First of all what is called a Dead Cat Bounce? According to Wikipedia Website, the definition is as per below:

In economics, a dead cat bounce is a small, brief recovery in the price of a declining stock. Derived from the idea that "even a dead cat will bounce if it falls from a great height", the phrase, which originated on Wall Street, is also popularly used to any case where a subject experiences a brief resurgence during or following a severe decline.

Today in this post, I will discuss whether Vocus Inc or stock quote "Vocs" will rebound after an incredible dropped of more than 40% in 1 trading days.
First of all, we need to know whether the 40% dropped in Vocs share price is justifiable. Based on my analysis, it is not. The drop of more than 40% is due to Vocs acquisition of I Connect at a high price of $160 million. Although, the acquisition price is high, I believe in the long run, it will help Vocs to become one of the world largest PR company and it will bring the stock price to the sky in the coming future.

Based on the long term analysis, Vocs is currently at the crucial support of $13.50 level. Even the financial crisis in 2009 did not bring the share price of Vocs below the current level of $13.50. Therefore, I believe that it will be strongly supported and will not be breached in the coming future. Another reason will be that the dropped of 40% is accompanied by superb high volume of nearly 5 million shares traded. It makes up around 25% of the total paid up capital which is at 20 million. The reason I am bringing this up is to show that the majority shareholder who wanted to sell the shares would have sold already.

Based on the short term chart, the past 2 days trading shown a doji / small shooting star candlestick at the bottow which is a sign of a bullish reversal pattern. Those who have shorted the Vocs in the past 3 trading days accompanied by hiuge volume will have to buy back the share in the market today to cover back its short position. The 4 technical as indicated above also shown that Vocs is currently in a very oversold position. I am expecting this stock to rebound at least 10% in the coming near future.

Based on the latest quarter EPS, Vocs is beating the analyst estimation again. However, on the next coming few quarters, Vocs earning might reduce substantially due to the consolidation of the losses in I Connect post acquisition.

Disclosure: I am currently long in Vocs with 5,000 shares, I am expecting Vocs to rally more than 10% when the earlier short seller cover its short position today.
However, as usual I will not hestitate to cut my long position if Vocs did not rally today as per my expectation.

Frontier Communications is Now In the Danger Zone!

I am down by 1% in Frontier Communications ("FTR"). Although it is only 1%, however, it may signal a beginning of a short term downward trend that can cause me lose more than 10%. As per the heading, I am currently in a danger zone for FTR.

However, I am still holding on to FTR because:
1) Based on the past few candlestick pattern, it is showing multiple candlestick doji with leg which is a sign of indecision and consolidation pattern for a trend. The stock have a high chances of going up futher because the current trend is up and it is now in the consolidation phase. However, if the trend is down, and the multiple doji appeared, then it may signal the consolidation for a downtrend.

2) Although yesterday, the volume is slightly higher, overall for the past few days, the average volume is low which is good. It means that the selling is no longer strong and is subsiding.

3) The MACD is still showing a bullish pattern currently. I believe that once the consolidation is over, it will move higher and the current positive MACD sign will continue to go upward.

However, if things turn sour for FTR, I will not be hestitated to sell immediately. The 1 or 2 days candlestick patterns will decide whether I will continue to hold or cut my losses.

Disclosure: I am currently invested all my hard earned saving in FTR and is expecting a 20% profit at least. however, I am currently lost about 1% and if it continues to move downward in the next few days, I will definetely cut my loss.

The Market Oracle prediction is FTR will continue to move upward strongly after this overdue consolidation.

Show Hand on FTR for at Least 20% gain!

Yes thats right, I am currently all in again in FRT. In Poker's Term - Show hand means you bet with everything that you have. This is what I am doing again with FRT after a good profit showing my hand with MGM and ALU. As you can see above, I am fully invested with a stock holding of 15,500.

As you can see on todays candlestick trading for FTR, it is going up nice and steady. I particularly like this kind of set up compare to sudden upward rocket movement. A slow and steady upward will have leg and can last longer compare to those sudden upward rocket movement. After downing a glass of tasty red wine, being optimistic, I am predicting that $4.70 today, if not tomorrow (currently FTR is trading at $4.68).

As you can see from my brief analysis on FTR chart, you can clearly see the downward swing trading for FTR. The recent trend movement by FTR is different this time, as it is accompany by superb high volume. If there is a superb high volume, it can means that all the seller who wanted to sell the share have sold and are fully absorb by all the buyers. In other words, there are no more people is selling or shorting FTR. Therefore, the only way for FTR currently is only up.

Based on the few short term analysis (about 1 or 2 weeks from now), I am expecting FTR to hit at least the $5.4 level for the first resistance and to the $6 level in the coming 1 or 2 months.

Disclosure: As I have mentioned in the beginning of this post, I am currently show hand again with FTR and I am expecting at least a 20% gain for this trade. I am currently up by 1.3% and I am expecting that at the end of today closing, I will be up by more than 1.5% and subsequently 20% at the end of next month. I am in a big superb long position for this stock.

Emergency Discovery - Frontier Communications (FTR)

Yes, it is an emergency broadcast at The Market Oracle. We have discover an alien invasion in the stock market- just kidding! We have discover a stock that is worth buying. It is none other than the title for this post which is Frontier Communications (FTR).

Based on the short term chart, FTR is currently in the fourth day after a strong upward move with high volume. Normally, if an uptrend is not strong, FTR would have tumble on the fourth day as most of the long players are rushing to cover their position. Even though, the long players have covered the position by selling on FTR, FTR continues at that level and instead go up slightly. It is a very important and major move for FTR.
 FTR has currently broken the downward trading range and it is definetely a positive signal. Although the downward trading range is not as visible and as apparent, I think it should be clearer in the coming days as FTR continues it upward move.

This is one very similar good example for FTR. Similar to FTR, MU manages to absorb all the long players who are covering their position on the fourth day, as a result, MU continues its upward climb to more than 30% to the current level.

Disclosure: I am currently 100% in cash and fully loaded. I am expecting to shoot all my bullets in either FTR or GTI. However, based on the analysis of the 2 very potential stocks, I think I am more likely to go all in for FTR as I can see clearer bullish trend for FTR as compared to GTI. GTI is a bit blur for me at the moment, as GTI can still go down a littler futher before it recover for at least a 10% gain.

100% Profit Guaranteed Stock to Buy - Graftech International ("GTI")

Is there anything such as profit guaranteed and risk free stock to buy? Yes, in The Market Oracle, there is such thing. Of course it is not the above Volkswagon GTI silly! It is none other than Graftech International ("GTI"). The stock code was easy remembered by me as a fan of Volkswagon GTI. I was surfing the Charting Software for a stock to buy next week after I have sold off my position in ALU for around 14% profit. GTI came into my radar after I sold a huge sold of a 2 days ago.

Anyway, anyhow, here goes my analysis for this potential stock - GTI.

Based on the long term chart, GTI is currently in the range trading of $12 to $18 for being conservative. Alternatively, this stock may hit the upward trading range of $24 if everything is on our side. The strong support is currently at the $12.

 

The best time to buy for this stock is on next Wednesday which is on the fourth day since the beginning of the thunderous drop for this stock. The reason why is the short seller who borrowed heavily to short this stock may have to cover their position on the third day after which is on next Tuesday.

The reason I am recommending to buy on the 4th day because it is risk free. As on the fourth day, this stock is more stable after the strong sell off, however, if the fourth day continues to go down heavily, then you should hold your purchase as the new round of short selling activity may arised.

As for the target for GTI, I am expecting at least a 18% gain from the current price of around $12.80 to the target price of $15.20 level. Based on the window gap above, the hell window for this stock has been opened and it is only right that it must be closed back. In order to close this window of hell, GTI must reach the $15 at least. The reason why I believe that this window of hell will be closed back sooner or later is due to the fact that GTI is a strong growth fundamental stock. (kindly refer to the quarterly earning below for the explaination)

As for me, I am risk tolerance, therefore I may initiate my purchase immediately on the coming Monday for a higher profit buy higher risk.

 Based on the quarterly earning growth, honestly, GTI is not performing as expected. It does not show a good growth in its quarterly earning but it does beat the analyst estimates on the past 11 quarters earning. On the current reported quarterly earning on Feb 21, 2012, it does beat the estimates by 1 cent. Although it is not substantial, but it does show something. As a result after the earning releases, GTI was beaten to hell by the stock operators and speculators. Is GTI turbo well deserve to be beaten like that. No, I dont think so.

Based on the yearly earning, GTI is expecting to report a yearly earniing of $1.09 on 2012. As the world economy continues to improve, I would expect the coming earning to be strong influenced as well. I am predicting more or less, GTI products will be demanded as GTI supply many of its product to many different industry. (Due to the time constraint, I did not analyze into details on the business plan and growth for GTI, however, I am expecting that it will out perform in the coming quarters).

Disclosure: After 2 straight wins for MGM (19%) and ALU (14%), I must be more careful on my 3rd bet. I am currently fully loaded in cash and I may initiate a long position on GTI in the coming Mondays. When I buy GTI in coming Mondays, as usual, it will be an all in for GTI. I am also expecting at least a 10% gain for GTI based on my estimated entry price at $12.90 on the coming Monday.

Good luck and God Bless - if there is any.