Is It Time to Buy Alcatel-Lucent ("ALU") Now!

Updated Today:

 I have discover a very interesting theory a minute ago. I think it will help in our trading decision on ALU, that is why I must share with you all immediately. On Feb 10, 2011, when ALU announced a strong earning of $0.19 beating analyst estimate at $0.16, ALU rally more than 20% as per the chart below: -

After ALU rally more than 20% on the day of the announcement on the superb earning, ALU gap higher by 20% (as per the black arrow above). What happen after that? ALU continue to climb more than a whopping 45%. Thereafter, ALU share started to drop after the slowdown in earning growth announcement on May 2011 onward.

The important thing that I would like to highlight is that eventhough ALU have rally more than 13% on the recent good annoucement, I believe ALU rally might not stop here. I believe there is still another at least 30% rally for ALU.

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Alcatel-Lucent Business Model

I have been looking at Alcatel-Lucent ("ALU") for a very long time since it was plunging furiously from the high of around $6.00 in 2011 April. ALU seems like dropping all the way towards bankruptcy. But is it justifiable for this once good stock to be punished like that. The answer is no. ALU is not going into bankruptcy for the near future. Instead the recent quarterly earning has shown a very good result with good growth in its quarterly earning.

So the important question is "Is It a Good Time to Jump Into ALU now, after yesterday rally of more than 13% to $2.19". The answer is a big yes with 99% chances it will be hitting the level of $2.8 for least a 20% gain in the coming future. However, there is still a 1% chances that ALU will not perform as expected. So how do we determine the 1% chance. The answer for the 1% will be revealed in the next 3 days time.

The reason why we will know the answer in the next 3 trading days because tonight closing at $2.19 up $0.25 cents for a 13% gained with a huge volume will have to be fully absorbed by the market. All those long contra player will have to cover their long position before the next upward move will be materialize. In other words, those who jump in on credit today will have to pay up for their stock in 3 days time, if they don't have the money to pay up for their stock, then they will have to sell on the 3rd day. You will see the result at the end of the third day after lunch hour or late afternoon.


Based on the long term chart, the first and important resistance is at $2.80. If ALU manages to convincingly penetrate this level, then the next level to target is at $3.90 level. I believe the $3.90 level will be penetrated in the long run, but you must be patience and to hold this stock for a long period of at least 1 year and above.

Based on the quarterly result from Google Finance, ALU has indeed improve tremendously in its revenue and also operating income. I believe overall the business turn around plan for ALU is definetely working and we could see more improvement of ALU revenue and operating income for the coming future. This stock is definetely a buy based on the fundamental analysis, I would not buy a stock if it goes up by 15% or more without any fundamental justification. Even though, before I initiate any trade, I will look and rely on technical analysis, I would also look at the quarterly earning growth as I believe it is important as well.

Disclosure: Currently I do not hold any stock in ALU, however, I might initate a buy on this stock after the next 3 days and provieded that ALU stays above the the $2.10. However, if ALU failed to hold up at least the $2.00 level, then I will not initiate a buy on this stock.

For more accurate and real time disclosure in the future, kindly visit my blog regularly because I will immediately post my online statement which I have initiated a buy position for ALU in the coming post.

Geomancy

I have recently came across an article in a magazine which I find it very interesting and holds true based on the life that I am going through.
The summary of the article by David Koh, the Founder and Principal for Malaysian Institute of Geomancy Sciences. In this article, it mentions that One's destiny in life is determined by what I call the '4Rs'. It simply means that success is about being in the right place with the right people and saying the right thing at the right time. Everything happens for a reason".

In other words, if you are still not making it in life, it means that you are not in :-
1) right place
2) meeting the right people
3) do the right thing
4) at the right time

So is there anything you could do about your life? The answer is no, everything is fated. If Mark Zuckerberg did not meet the Winklevoss twins during his years in Harvard, then there won't be Facebook today. It was the Winklevoss twins that have given him the idea of Facebook.

I believe things happen for a reason and is fated. You are not the destiny to be somebody, then there is no point forcing it, cause no matter how hard you try, you won't be making it, unless you have the luck of the "4Rs". Do you ever experience in your life, no matter how hard you try, you are still not achieving it? However, your average Joe Next Door, is just slumbering throughout his life, but is making it big time as compared to you. That is because he always have the "4Rs" with him.

So what is the message that I would like to share in this post? What will happen, will happen, what's yours will be yours. It is all in your destiny when you were born. No need to stress out, no need to force it, just take things easy and appreciate and enjoy life. After all, life is short.

Sold Mpel At $11.71 for A Profit of $3,000

Yesterday I have sold Melco Crown Entertainment ("Mpel") for a profit of only $3,000. Initially, I was up by $5,000 but now my realized profit was halved to $3,000. It is a good decision that I have sold it off? This is a question that came on and off in my head after I have sold it. Do I regretted it? Maybe, but there are solid reason for my action. My reasons are:-
1) I cannot afford to lose in any one trade, in other words, I must win 100%.(due to my personal commitment)
2) I was wrong in predicting that Mpel has broke the important resistance at $12.00, in fact the important resistance was not broke, Mpel merely flirted with it for a brief interval.
3) The China Stock Exchange under "SSE" continues to tumble downward with due to news on China Economy slowing down. With today tumbling more than 1.68%. (Please refer to the chart of SSE at the bottom of this post)
4) DJIA has met the important and all time resistance of 12,800 which is at current level. (Please refer to the chart of DJIA at the bottom of this post)

Yesterday closing at $11.66 which lost around 3.44% has prompted me take take immediate action to sell Mpel. I have no choice because Mpel did not move as per my earlier prediction. I have predicted that Mpel will continue to move up ahead after crushing the important resistance at the $12 level. The 1 down long red candlestick is also a very bearish sign. It indicates that Mpel will continue to face more resistance in the coming future. I also believe that the coming earning announcement in Feb 9 which is three days from today, will not be good. If it is good, then Mpel stock will have move up these few days as insider trading will have move the stock upward. If you tell me there is no insider trading in the market, you probably do not understand the wicked world of stock market, my best advise is for you to watch the movie Wall Street "Money Never Sleeps". Insider trading is rampant, I believe Mpel will not be an exception to it.


Now, lets bring Wynn into the picture on why I have sold Mpel.

Firstly, if you would have look at the recent quarterly earning of Wynn, even though, it has crushed analyst prediction by a whopping 20% more, the stock is only up by around 2%, and then go downhill all the way afterward.

By right, if Wynn is beating the analyst estimates with a whopping 20%, Wynn stock should be moving up all the way. However, instead of going up, it is going down. There is definitely something fishy going on here. I believe that the fund manager, stock operators, and block traders know something that we don't know. It may be due to the slowing casino revenue growth in Macau which have yet to be reported. Anyway, it makes me think that what if Mpel reported growth in earning in the coming quarters, but Mpel is going nowhere, just like Wynn. Or to make matter worst, Mpel may report earning below analysts estimates, and it will send the stock down tumbling more than 10%. Either up or down on Mpel quarterly earning, it looks like Mpel stock is not going anywhere but down as per the example from Wynn.

Based on the simple long term chart of DJIA, DJIA has meet the important resistance at the current level. To break this resistance might be a miracle as I believe this long multi years resistance is a tough job to break.

Conclusion:
To wrap things up here, I have sold Mpel for a profit of $3,000 and I wont be regretted by my action even Mpel will continue to move upward after today. In the past, I have always make mistake and lost lots of money due to my greediness of always wanted to make more money. However, sometimes, it is not worth the risk, in this case, for my Mpel trade, it is definitely not worth the risk to hold Mpel for the coming short term, as the overall market is very volatile now, a bad news from Europe of Asia can sent the world stock markets down and the whole world back into recession.

Disclosure:
I have sold all the stock that I have invested in Mpel. I am currently 100% in cash position. I may initiate purchase in Mpel stock once it move down to the strong support at $8.50 level.

Last but not least, I would like to thank the our regular visitors, Dale and Zoozoocracker1@yahoo.com for their kind suggestion and advised on my Mpel trade.

Melco Crown Entertainment to Continue its Second Upward Wave

As of today, I have earned around $5,000 from my trade in Melco Crown Entertainment ("Mpel") stock. So what should I do now after earning $5,000? Should I realized my gain and then head to Amazon website and pick up few more Invicta Diver and Speedway watches? One of my regular visitor to this blog - Dale, have asked why I sold my MGM stock and bought Mpel, wouldn't it be more profitable if I would have stayed with my MGM investment? One question after another, looks like there are never ending questions with no one accurate answer to them. In my today's post I will answer all the hard questions above.

So far I am dead right predicting on the every move on Mpel based on my previous few posts on Mpel. Am I a god or a genius, I am none of both. I am just a regularly trader who is trying to make some money in my Mpel trade. I am a regular guy just like you, my loyal blog reader. You too can earn the easy money and predict the movement of Mpel as accurate as me and even beat me.

I have visited Macau in 2009, when I visited at that time, the City of Dream by Mpel is still in the opening stage. There are not many people there at that time. Now, I believe things have took a turned in City of Dream, the last time I have checked the news on City of Dream, people are flocking there like nobody business, it is now pact with people. What a nicely taken picture above. With its business 100% focus in the strong Macau growth, I believe Mpel is indeed the future.
 

 Based on the short term chart, Mpel has already broke the important resistance of $12. Both my favorite important indicators are showing a fresh upward signal for Mpel. Initially, both indicators have started to point downward movement for Mpel, however, in the latest few days closing, both the technical indicators have changed and now it points to a fresh upward move for Mpel. Please refer to my highlighted red circle as per the above chart. Also, the huge volume on the 2 volume indicators have been absorbed without any problem.

Based on the long term chart, I am predicting that Mpel will 3 upward wave to the year long resistance of $16. After the 3 waves, then we will decided what is next as I will be analyzing the chart at that future point in time. We are currently in the beginning of the 2nd upward trend which will take Mpel to the $14 level and then consolidate slightly and being the next wave which will take Mpel to the $16 level.

However, all these can change if the next quarterly on the Feb 9, 2012. On Feb 9, 2012, I believe this stock will have either tumble or jump forward after the earning release. For those who have insider information, I believe earning at least 10% is not a problem. I do not have insider information on Mpel, what I have is my skill to correctly predict Mpel daily stock movement.

Another important news that concerned me a lot is that on Jan 31, 2012, some analyst reported that Mpel has lose market share of around 2% in January. I do not know whether the news is true or not, and I do not know to what extend this news will impact the stock price on the quarterly earning release on Feb 9, 2012. However, I believe that Mpel will not have a high impact because the Mpel eventually recover back around 7% after this unfortunate news.

Well as for my reader Dale, the reason I have shifted all my investment from MGM into Mpel is because of the following:
1) MGM is a very risky stock with high debt position, any negative news on its debt position will easily make MGM to tumble 10% or more.
2) Even though MGM business is turning around with high revenue growth reported quarter over quarter, MGM is currently still making losses until based on analyst estimates it is does not make profit even until 2013.
3) I have relied on my technical analysis skill, however, I still do not ignore my fundamental analysis as I believe, fundamental analysis such as the financial statements of the stock will impact the long term movement of the price. It will definitely affect the long term trend of the stocks.

Even though I am deeply saddened by my move from MGM to Mpel, as of current I have earned less around 3-4% or around $3,000-$4,000 more from my shift, however, I have not regretted my move as I believe, in the coming future, Mpel can easily overtake MGM in price. Also, by selling MGM, I have managed to scoop up more stock in Mpel as at the point in time, MGM stock price is more higher than Mpel price.

The important date that I am now curiously waiting for is Feb 9, 2012, as it will be a very date where it will move the stock price up as predicted in this posting.
However, if I am wrong, I believe, that Mpel in the long run is still a viable and good stock to be heavily invested into.

Disclosure: Currently I am all invested Mpel stock, I have invested every single penny that I have in Mpel. Therefore, currently I do not longer hold any cash position and I intend to go through this month expenses through my credit card.  I am also expecting that all the prediction in this post about Mpel stock price will come true.


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Melco Crown Entertainment Announces Earnings Release Date

NEW YORK, Feb 1, 2012 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (sehk:6883) /quotes/zigman/104187/quotes/nls/mpel MPEL -0.37% , a developer and owner of casino gaming and entertainment resort facilities focused on the Macau market, today announces that it will file its fourth quarter and full year results for 2011 on Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on February 9, 2012, to be followed by a conference call on the same day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (or 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time). 

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Melco Crown Leads Casino Stock Declines: Hong Kong Mover

January 31, 2012, 7:20 PM EST

 

By Vinicy Chan

Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd., the casino venture between Lawrence Ho and Australian billionaire James Packer, dropped the most in seven weeks, leading gambling stock declines in Hong Kong trading.

Melco Crown slid as much as 5.6 percent to HK$28.10, the biggest intraday drop since Dec. 9, before trading at HK$28.20 as of the 12 p.m. local time trading break. Rivals Wynn Macau Ltd., a unit of Las-Vegas based Wynn Resorts Ltd., sank 4.8 percent to HK$19.7, and SJM Holdings Ltd. declined 3.3 percent to HK$13.32.

“Melco Crown is losing market share to competitors; its market share in January is expected to drop by up to 2 percentage points on a monthly basis which may explain why it is leading the decline,” said Victor Yip, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd. Lawrence Ho is the son of Macau casino billionaire Stanley Ho.

Total gaming revenue for all Macau casino operators in January may be less robust than earlier estimates of as much as 28 billion patacas ($3.5 billion), Yip said. Melco Crown’s market share may drop to 12 percent in January from 14 percent in December, he said.

“Through our various channel checks, the revenue is expected to reach roughly 24 billion patacas,” Yip said.

Sands China Ltd., a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp., said on Jan. 30 that visitors to its Macau casinos rose by 5 percent to 6 percent to more than 1 million during the Lunar New Year that took place between Jan. 23 and Jan. 29.

Sands China shares dipped 2.8 percent to HK$26.1. The stock has jumped 19 percent this year, outperforming the 10 percent gain in the Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index.

Galaxy Entertainment Group, the company controlled by Hong Kong tycoon Lui Che-Woo, dropped 1.5 percent to HK$16.80.

--Editors: Stephanie Wong, Robert Fenner
--Editors: Stephanie Wong, Robert Fenner

Source (from Bloomberg website)

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Free Invicta Watches

Yes, it is indeed free watches for me. I have rewarded myself with these free wacthes after my profit of more than $10,000 trading ini MGM shares. (Please refer here for more details: http://www.themarketoracle.blogspot.com/2012/01/sold-mgm-for-profit-of-10819.html)
I have bought myself these 4 watches at Amazon website and have just reeived it yesterday. It is indeed very good quality watches for a very good price.

I owned 1 Rolex, 3 Tag Heuer, 1 Tissot, and few other branded and non branded watches. However, I like the Invicta Watches very much as it is of good quality and it have good japanese movement inside it. The watch widow glass is also made of Invicta version of scratch resistant crystal called Flame Fusion. So far I am very delighted on the 4 watches eventhough I have not wear it yet, I have already inspected the four watches in detail and I find it all flawless at this point in time. Four of the watches that I have bought also resemble the Rolex model. From far, I couldnt notice whether it is Rolex or Invicta, cause it almost look exactly the same, except that the logo is different. I particularly like the stainless steel watches, as I tend to sweat easily.

Another picture taken from the side. I am not so satisfied with the pictures taken as it is not as bright as I expected.

Watch Information

Brand Name: Invicta

Model number: 1771

Part Number: 1771

Item Shape: round

Dial window material type: flame-fusion

Display Type: analog

Clasp: fold-over-clasp-with-safety

Metal stamp: 316L

Case material: stainless-steel

Case diameter: 44.00

Case Thickness: 12.00

Band material: stainless-steel

Band length: mens-standard

Band width: 22 millimeters

Band Color: silver

Dial color: blue

Bezel material: stainless-steel

Bezel Function: unidirectional

Special Features: chronograph, luminous, stop-watch

Movement: japanese-quartz

Water resistant depth: 200 Meters

Watch Information

Brand Name: Invicta

Model number: INVICTA-3045

Part Number: 3045

Model Year: 2011

Item Shape: round

Dial window material type: Mineral

Display Type: analog

Clasp: fold-over-clasp-with-safety

Case material: stainless-steel

Case diameter: 52 millimeters

Case Thickness: 17 millimeters

Band material: stainless-steel

Band length: mens

Band width: 22 millimeters

Band Color: Silver

Dial color: blue

Bezel material: stainless-steel

Bezel Function: unidirectional

Calendar: Date

Special Features: luminous

Movement: automatic-self-wind

Water resistant depth: 1000 Feet

Watch Information

Brand Name: Invicta

Model number: INVICTA-8926

Part Number: 8926

Model Year: 2011

Item Shape: round

Dial window material type: Mineral

Display Type: analog

Clasp: fold-over-clasp-with-safety

Case material: stainless-steel

Case diameter: 38 millimeters

Case Thickness: 12 millimeters

Band material: stainless-steel

Band length: mens

Band width: 20 millimeters

Band Color: silver

Dial color: black

Bezel material: stainless-steel

Bezel Function: unidirectional

Calendar: Date

Special Features: water-resistant

item-weight: 16 Ounces

Movement: japanese-automatic

Water resistant depth: 660 Feet

Watch Information

Brand Name: Invicta

Model number: INVICTA-9223

Part Number: 9223

Model Year: 2011

Item Shape: round

Dial window material type: Mineral

Display Type: analog

Clasp: fold-over-clasp-with-safety

Case material: stainless-steel

Case diameter: 43 millimeters

Case Thickness: 11 millimeters

Band material: stainless-steel

Band length: mens

Band width: 20 millimeters

Band Color: silver

Dial color: black

Bezel material: stainless-steel

Bezel Function: Tachometer

Calendar: Date

Special Features: luminous

item-weight: 16 Ounces

Movement: japanese-quartz

Water resistant depth: 660 Feet

Once I realized another more than $10,000 profit trading in Melco Crown Entertainment  ("Mpel") stock, I am thinking to buy another 8 Invicta Watches.

Please check out my Mpel daily analysis on my next post.

Disclosure: This is my first four Invicta Watches that I have bought, I intend to buy more when I have cash out my profit in Melco Crown Entertainment stock trade.

Melco Crown Entertainment Must Rally Today! Feb 1, 2012

This morning, Feb 1, 2012, Melco Crown ("MPEL") must continue it's upward rally otherwise, my investment will be futile.

There are 2  strong and valid reasons that I believe MPEL will up at least 3% today.
1st Reason: Mpel yesterday closing candlestick is showing a bullish harami pattern.
2nd Reason: This morning at 3.41 am, Bloomberg News just reported that Macau Revenue For January 2012 rises 35%. (The details of the news are per the below post)

Yesterday, I am glad that Mpel perform as per my expectation. If yesterday, Mpel continues to go down, then I will be in deep trouble. The past 2 days tumbled of more than 6% is to shake off the weak investor and for the heavy speculators to cover the long position.
I believe a new really and new uptrend will happen this morning. For a new investor, he or she would have sold his position when Mpel tumbled more than 6%, however, as for me, instead of selling my stock in Mpel, I buy another 200 stock of Mpel at the price of $11.13. I have used my emtire January salary to buy the 200 stock and now I am left with nothing to spend for February while waiting for my new salary. Is it worth the risk and the trouble. Yes! It is worth everything as I believe Mpel will continues to outperform in the market. For the near short term, it will match the price of MGM at $13.00 as I don't believe MGM should worth more than Mpel.
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 (Bullish Harami Explanation from Investopedia Website)

I have added another 200 stock yesterday, my total stock for Mpel currently stand at 6000.

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Disclosure: Currently I have zero money in my Bank Account as I am using it all to purchase Mpel. I am thinking to use my credit card to help me go through my Feb expenses. I am currently heavily invested in Mpel stock of 6000 and I am expecting Mpel to rally to $15 in the near future and to $20 for a 90% gain by the end of this year. However, in between now and end of this year, I may sell and buy Mpel as I am an experience swing trader.

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Macau January Casino Revenue Rises 35% on New Year Gains

February 01, 2012, 3:21 AM EST

By Vinicy Chan

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Casino revenue in Macau, the world’s largest gambling hub, rose 35 percent in January, beating analyst estimates as Chinese tourists spent more during the Lunar New Year holiday.

Revenue at casinos in Macau, the only place in China where they are legal, jumped 35 percent to 25 billion patacas ($3.13 billion) in January, according to data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. That was higher than the median estimate of 24 billion patacas from seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Chinese gamblers have fueled growth in the former Portuguese colony, where gambling sales have more than tripled in the past four years. Las Vegas Sands Corp., the world’s biggest casino company by market value, generated 60 percent of its revenue in Macau in 2010 after opening its first location in the city in 2004.

Visitors to locations belonging to Sands China Ltd., Asia’s biggest casino operator by market value, rose by 5 percent to 6 percent to more than 1 million during the Lunar New Year holiday from Jan. 23 to Jan. 29, the company said on Jan. 30.

Sands China, the Hong Kong-listed unit of billionaire Sheldon Adelson’s Las Vegas-based company, climbed 1.3 percent to HK$26.60 in Hong Kong trading at 3:26 p.m. local time. SJM Holdings Ltd., Asia’s biggest casino company founded by billionaire Stanley Ho, gained 1.9 percent to HK$14.14.

MGM China Holdings Ltd. fell 0.2 percent, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. jumped 2.5 percent, Wynn Macau Ltd. gained 1.9 percent and Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. moved 0.2 percent higher. The benchmark Hang Seng Index dipped 0.5 percent.

--Editors: Anjali Cordeiro, Stephanie Wong