Melco Crown Entertainment Must Rally Today! Feb 1, 2012

This morning, Feb 1, 2012, Melco Crown ("MPEL") must continue it's upward rally otherwise, my investment will be futile.

There are 2  strong and valid reasons that I believe MPEL will up at least 3% today.
1st Reason: Mpel yesterday closing candlestick is showing a bullish harami pattern.
2nd Reason: This morning at 3.41 am, Bloomberg News just reported that Macau Revenue For January 2012 rises 35%. (The details of the news are per the below post)

Yesterday, I am glad that Mpel perform as per my expectation. If yesterday, Mpel continues to go down, then I will be in deep trouble. The past 2 days tumbled of more than 6% is to shake off the weak investor and for the heavy speculators to cover the long position.
I believe a new really and new uptrend will happen this morning. For a new investor, he or she would have sold his position when Mpel tumbled more than 6%, however, as for me, instead of selling my stock in Mpel, I buy another 200 stock of Mpel at the price of $11.13. I have used my emtire January salary to buy the 200 stock and now I am left with nothing to spend for February while waiting for my new salary. Is it worth the risk and the trouble. Yes! It is worth everything as I believe Mpel will continues to outperform in the market. For the near short term, it will match the price of MGM at $13.00 as I don't believe MGM should worth more than Mpel.
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 (Bullish Harami Explanation from Investopedia Website)

I have added another 200 stock yesterday, my total stock for Mpel currently stand at 6000.

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Disclosure: Currently I have zero money in my Bank Account as I am using it all to purchase Mpel. I am thinking to use my credit card to help me go through my Feb expenses. I am currently heavily invested in Mpel stock of 6000 and I am expecting Mpel to rally to $15 in the near future and to $20 for a 90% gain by the end of this year. However, in between now and end of this year, I may sell and buy Mpel as I am an experience swing trader.

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Macau January Casino Revenue Rises 35% on New Year Gains

February 01, 2012, 3:21 AM EST

By Vinicy Chan

Feb. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Casino revenue in Macau, the world’s largest gambling hub, rose 35 percent in January, beating analyst estimates as Chinese tourists spent more during the Lunar New Year holiday.

Revenue at casinos in Macau, the only place in China where they are legal, jumped 35 percent to 25 billion patacas ($3.13 billion) in January, according to data from Macau’s Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau. That was higher than the median estimate of 24 billion patacas from seven analysts surveyed by Bloomberg News.

Chinese gamblers have fueled growth in the former Portuguese colony, where gambling sales have more than tripled in the past four years. Las Vegas Sands Corp., the world’s biggest casino company by market value, generated 60 percent of its revenue in Macau in 2010 after opening its first location in the city in 2004.

Visitors to locations belonging to Sands China Ltd., Asia’s biggest casino operator by market value, rose by 5 percent to 6 percent to more than 1 million during the Lunar New Year holiday from Jan. 23 to Jan. 29, the company said on Jan. 30.

Sands China, the Hong Kong-listed unit of billionaire Sheldon Adelson’s Las Vegas-based company, climbed 1.3 percent to HK$26.60 in Hong Kong trading at 3:26 p.m. local time. SJM Holdings Ltd., Asia’s biggest casino company founded by billionaire Stanley Ho, gained 1.9 percent to HK$14.14.

MGM China Holdings Ltd. fell 0.2 percent, Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd. jumped 2.5 percent, Wynn Macau Ltd. gained 1.9 percent and Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd. moved 0.2 percent higher. The benchmark Hang Seng Index dipped 0.5 percent.

--Editors: Anjali Cordeiro, Stephanie Wong

Melco Crown Entertainment, Should I Cut My Losses Now?

Update after market close:

Terrible day, Mpel down a whopping 7.42% at $10.85. However, I still believe that over the long run Mpel will test it long term resistance at $16 to form a double bottom.

Based on the after market analysis of Mpel, I believe that Mpel will have another 1 day of consolidation before it will start moving up again. The immediate support level which is at the mid of Bollinger Band now  is very important to determine the future price of this stock. If this support fail, then Mpel might be going down even more to the previously resistance turn support at the $10.30 level. I no longer have any capital in hand, if I have, I definetely show hand to scoop as many stock as possible which it is still attractively price. i believe that the whopping crushing of Mpel yesterday is to shake off the weak player or the contra player our of this stock before it continues its run up ahead. This is a very crucial time at this moment because the decision that I will make in the next couples of day will resulted in me earning few thousands more or few thousands less. At this point in time, I really can't afford to lose and I did not have the intention to give in and cut loss for this trade.

Disclosure: I have not sold Mpel on today's tumbling, I am still holding on tightly to this stock. As of now, i can only rely on O Mighty God to have mercy on me. May god have mercy on me! God bless!

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It is a very terrible day for me!

It is unbelievable, at first I was up by 4%-6% now I am down by 3-4%, all this action happened in just a matter of 2 days infact. It is indeed a wild ride and not for the faint hearted. As I have mentioned in my previous post, I cannot afford to lose money now as I have personal commitment to fulfill into. This is a really bad day for me. I enter Mpel at the price of $11.25 and now the price is $10.81 with roughly a 3% lost. Now the biggest question is should I cut my losses now or should I wait for the rebound? If I were to wait for the rebound, I might be getting myself in deep water as Mpel might continues it's ride down. If I cut my losses now, I will lose around $3,000. At this point in time, I can't afford to lose money.



But thankfully to my many years of experience in trading this wild market has make me into a calmer and wiser person.
Based on the technical analysis, the uptrend is still intact. I believe today big down is the work of the stock operators to scare away the speculators who are long in this stock. The speculators will take this opportunity to cover their long position before the next uptrent to continue. Afterall, this stock has been moving from the low of $8.80 to the current level of %11.80 (an increase of 34%) before today correction bring it down to the $10.70 level (huge drop of 8.5%).

I did not expect a big sudden drop in a day as I do not have any chance at all to sell since the Mpel started trading this morning. If I choose to cut loss now, then it is definetely a loss for me. However, I am a swing trader and I believe that the current swing for Mpel is still up.

It is indeed a terrible day for me, at this point in time, I do not have any choice but continue to ride this stock as I believe that the current rally for MPEL is not over yet.

Atmel Corporation! Help me!

I have recently received an email from an investor and also a frequent visitor to my humble blog. His name is Danny, he has invested in Atmel and is currently down by $2000. That is a lot of money to my and worth about few good Invicta' Watches at Amazon.

Anyway, as an author and founder of my humble blog, The Market Oracle, my aim is to help as many people as I can with my knowledge, skill and experience that I have gained after more than 13 years trading in the market.

His question is should he hold this stock through 2012. First of all, I did not know what is his entry price, but I figure it out, it should be at $11.20 level based on the current price of around $9.6 (based on 15% loses), for him to lost around $2,000.

Well, I promise you Danny, I will try my very best to honestly tell you what you should do now. As usual, I will first analyze the Long Term Chart follow by the Short Term Chart. I will then look at the fundamental side by analyzing the quarterly earning growth.

 Email from Danny

Based on the long term chart above, the strong support for Atmel is at the $8. The 1st resistance for Atmel is at the $12 level. Looking at the chart above, I believe that Atmel have a chance to test the first resistance at $12 based on the current market situation. The current US market is growing stronger day by day. Even though there are many negative news coming from Europe and also China, however, it does not stop DJIA from rallying day after day. I believe that the overall market is still strong and have lots of room to grow further.

Based on the short term chart, currently Atmel is in an upward trend. I believe this upwad trend will last a little longer as most of the upward move did pause for a slight consolidation. If Atmel is moving up fast and strong without consolidation in between, then I am dead worried, cause I believe the faster this stock go up, the faster it will come down as well. If I am correct, I believe that next week, Atmel will head to the $11 at least. The current 2 important technical indicators, the MACD and Stochastic, even though do shown a little negative signal, I believe that it is not a crucial issue here, because the negative indicators are merely pointing towards a short term consolidation move for Atmel.

Based on the quarterly earning for Atmel, Atmel is showing stable growth ahead. As long as it didnt show losses, it should be a safe haven stock to invest in. Even though the future forecase quarterly earning for Atmel is flat, but I believe that the super touch screen technology that Atmel supplies to many smart phone and tablet company is right on track for the future growth and potential of the company.

Conclusion:
I believe that if the US market continues its upward move, I believe that many stocks will continue to surge further which includes Atmel. There a lot's of money which have yet to enter the market will do so in the coming month and bring the whole market to the pre crisis level.

Therefore,  my advise is to hold and Atmel and continue to ride this stock to the $16 level based on your entry price at around $11.20 for a 40% gained. It is definetely not a good time to surrender and sell this stock for a loss of $2,000. Continue to ride this stock and play based on range trading of between $8 and $12.

Good luck and god bless.

Disclosure: - I currently do not hold any stock in Atmel but may initiate an entry position if the Atmel did not perform as I have analyzed and if Atmel move to the important support of $8.00. If Atmel move downward and hit $8.00, it is definetely a big buy for me.

Melco Crown Entertainment Take Profit or Let Profit Run?

I am currently having a dilemma and in a difficult situation where the decision that I make next will decide whether I will have another few thousand or ten over thousand. As of the closing price of $11.72 last friday, I am not up by 4.18% and making around $2,726. If I am not wise or careful in my next decision, I will not only lost my gain but I will lose my capital as well. Therefore, I now need to make a very important detail analysis on the next movement for Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL). I must not be wrong on this one, as I need to make more capital gain for personal reason.

Based on the chart above, this stock might be heading towards the resistance of $16 or the support of $8.5. If somebody out there who can give me an accurate 100% answer, then it will solve my dilemma and my worry for this weekend. But I believe only god can give me an answer, not even Warren Buffet or Albert Einstein. I am particularly worry about the Stochastic signal which point to a very negative movement for MPEL. It is showing that both lines appear to meet at the top and moving downward for consolidation as it is currently overbought. Based on my experience, I would say that at least 60% of the time, stochastic proved to be a realiable signal to point the future movement of the stock.

As for the close up candlestick analysis, it is showing an important consolidation pattern for MPEL. The next 2 or 3 candlesticks is very important as it will determine whether MPEL is actually in the consolidation and will move up afterward, or it will lead MPEL to the start of a correction downtrend which will bring the stock to the $8.50 support level.
However, based on the MPEL current candlestick chart pattern which resemble the bullish mat hold, MPEL will be in the small correction mode for another 2 days, before it will convincingly lead another round of rally to push it above the $12 level.

Based on my knowledge and experience trading the NYSE and NASDAQ, I am very convinced that the current rally is not over yet. DJIA still have more room to grow. Over the long term, I believe that MPEL will continue its upward rise to test the resistance of $16 and will eventually surpass it and move to the new high. My prediction is not solely based on the technical analysis but fundamental as well. The casino business for MPEL in China continues to grow quarter over quarter and no one really knows how lond this growth may continue. As the whole China is a very big market and more people are getting richer and the chinese people really like to gamble and treat it as their favorite pass time. Until their is a concrete evidence pointing to a real slowdown in MPEL such as the decrease in the quarterly revenue, I believe that MPEL will continue its upward move to the next unseen level.

Disclosure: I am currently show hand in MPEL and have invested every single penny that I have in MPEL. I am also expecting at least a 10% profit for this stock in the coming future and no planning to cut my profit in the coming next 2 trades.

What Now for Cisco?

 I have traded Cisco stock for several times now. I have made some money and lost some on this stock. For those who are invested in this stock, I hope that my brief analysis in this post will be able to help you in your decision making on whether to buy more or take profit for this stock.

Cisco has been moving upward aggresively since Aug 2011 at around $14 to the current level of $20. It is a whopping 40% gain. To me it is a huge gain and profit taking, long covering and consolidation for this stock look inevitable.
Based on the long term chart, Cisco has broken the downward range trading and is now going into a smooth uptrend move. I believe this uptrend move might be a long term one, however, a meaningful consolidation for this stock is a must for this stock to continue its uptrend strongly.

Based on the short term chart, it appears that Cisco is moving into a consolidation move with the short term target at $17.20. I believe the $17.20 is a strong support level for Cisco and one should plan an entry at this level if you are interested to go into this stock.
My target for Cisco at $17.20 is well supported by 2 important technical indicators which is the MACD and Stochastic, both are currently showing an overbought position for Cisco and both indicators are showing the blue line is moving downward to consolidate.

Based on the earning analysis for Cisco, it looks great in both quarterly and yearly growth. With the EPS of $1.77 for 2012, Csco is currently trading at slight above the PE ratio of 10. It is a very good PE ratio for a stable and a slow but strong revenue growth company.

Even though the earning growth for Cisco is a slow one, but it is a good fundamental company to invest in for a long run especially with the hugh cash in hand.

Disclosure:
I have no positions in Cisco and do not intend to trade Cisco in the coming future as I am currently show hand in Melco Crown (MPEL).

Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) Rally to Continue!

Happy Chinese New Year! Greeting from the The Market Oracle!

 The Majestic Development from Melco Crown in Cotai

After my first encounter with MPEL last year, I have recently reenter MPEL. The reasons I am making the decision to reenter MPEL is overall the world markets especially for the US Market are improving, the never ending revenue growth in Macau, increasing Earning Per Share (EPS) and the tecnical and fundamental analysis as per this post. Based on long term chart above, MPEL has recently broken the long term down trend line. The MACD indicator is currently pointing a further upward move for MPEL and it is currently not oversold yet. The stochastic on the other hand is showing a slightly overbought position and a negative downtrend for this stock.

MPEL current formation is similar to the Descending Triangle Formation as the above. Even though, the chances is high for MPEL to follow the rules of Descending Triangle Formation and head lower after the consolidation, I am betting it will go the opposite way instead.

Based on the short term chart analysis, I am predicting that Mpel will retest the previous high of $16 and possibly to move higher after that. As of current, most of the technical indicators is pointing to an upward move for this stock, except for stochastic which shows an overbought position for this stock. One thing that I am concerned is the low volume in the rise up which means that the upward move is not strong. For the rally to be strong, we need a strong volume to justify it.

Quarterly data shown a strong improvement quarter over quarter. I am expecting the next quarter revenue will be even higher especially the Lunar New Year will bring all the gambler to speculate crazily.

Disclosure: I am currently all in at $11.25 with a total stocks of 5,800 and I am expecting a profit of 20%-30% at least for this trade.