Frontier Communications is Now In the Danger Zone!

I am down by 1% in Frontier Communications ("FTR"). Although it is only 1%, however, it may signal a beginning of a short term downward trend that can cause me lose more than 10%. As per the heading, I am currently in a danger zone for FTR.

However, I am still holding on to FTR because:
1) Based on the past few candlestick pattern, it is showing multiple candlestick doji with leg which is a sign of indecision and consolidation pattern for a trend. The stock have a high chances of going up futher because the current trend is up and it is now in the consolidation phase. However, if the trend is down, and the multiple doji appeared, then it may signal the consolidation for a downtrend.

2) Although yesterday, the volume is slightly higher, overall for the past few days, the average volume is low which is good. It means that the selling is no longer strong and is subsiding.

3) The MACD is still showing a bullish pattern currently. I believe that once the consolidation is over, it will move higher and the current positive MACD sign will continue to go upward.

However, if things turn sour for FTR, I will not be hestitated to sell immediately. The 1 or 2 days candlestick patterns will decide whether I will continue to hold or cut my losses.

Disclosure: I am currently invested all my hard earned saving in FTR and is expecting a 20% profit at least. however, I am currently lost about 1% and if it continues to move downward in the next few days, I will definetely cut my loss.

The Market Oracle prediction is FTR will continue to move upward strongly after this overdue consolidation.

Show Hand on FTR for at Least 20% gain!

Yes thats right, I am currently all in again in FRT. In Poker's Term - Show hand means you bet with everything that you have. This is what I am doing again with FRT after a good profit showing my hand with MGM and ALU. As you can see above, I am fully invested with a stock holding of 15,500.

As you can see on todays candlestick trading for FTR, it is going up nice and steady. I particularly like this kind of set up compare to sudden upward rocket movement. A slow and steady upward will have leg and can last longer compare to those sudden upward rocket movement. After downing a glass of tasty red wine, being optimistic, I am predicting that $4.70 today, if not tomorrow (currently FTR is trading at $4.68).

As you can see from my brief analysis on FTR chart, you can clearly see the downward swing trading for FTR. The recent trend movement by FTR is different this time, as it is accompany by superb high volume. If there is a superb high volume, it can means that all the seller who wanted to sell the share have sold and are fully absorb by all the buyers. In other words, there are no more people is selling or shorting FTR. Therefore, the only way for FTR currently is only up.

Based on the few short term analysis (about 1 or 2 weeks from now), I am expecting FTR to hit at least the $5.4 level for the first resistance and to the $6 level in the coming 1 or 2 months.

Disclosure: As I have mentioned in the beginning of this post, I am currently show hand again with FTR and I am expecting at least a 20% gain for this trade. I am currently up by 1.3% and I am expecting that at the end of today closing, I will be up by more than 1.5% and subsequently 20% at the end of next month. I am in a big superb long position for this stock.

Emergency Discovery - Frontier Communications (FTR)

Yes, it is an emergency broadcast at The Market Oracle. We have discover an alien invasion in the stock market- just kidding! We have discover a stock that is worth buying. It is none other than the title for this post which is Frontier Communications (FTR).

Based on the short term chart, FTR is currently in the fourth day after a strong upward move with high volume. Normally, if an uptrend is not strong, FTR would have tumble on the fourth day as most of the long players are rushing to cover their position. Even though, the long players have covered the position by selling on FTR, FTR continues at that level and instead go up slightly. It is a very important and major move for FTR.
 FTR has currently broken the downward trading range and it is definetely a positive signal. Although the downward trading range is not as visible and as apparent, I think it should be clearer in the coming days as FTR continues it upward move.

This is one very similar good example for FTR. Similar to FTR, MU manages to absorb all the long players who are covering their position on the fourth day, as a result, MU continues its upward climb to more than 30% to the current level.

Disclosure: I am currently 100% in cash and fully loaded. I am expecting to shoot all my bullets in either FTR or GTI. However, based on the analysis of the 2 very potential stocks, I think I am more likely to go all in for FTR as I can see clearer bullish trend for FTR as compared to GTI. GTI is a bit blur for me at the moment, as GTI can still go down a littler futher before it recover for at least a 10% gain.

100% Profit Guaranteed Stock to Buy - Graftech International ("GTI")

Is there anything such as profit guaranteed and risk free stock to buy? Yes, in The Market Oracle, there is such thing. Of course it is not the above Volkswagon GTI silly! It is none other than Graftech International ("GTI"). The stock code was easy remembered by me as a fan of Volkswagon GTI. I was surfing the Charting Software for a stock to buy next week after I have sold off my position in ALU for around 14% profit. GTI came into my radar after I sold a huge sold of a 2 days ago.

Anyway, anyhow, here goes my analysis for this potential stock - GTI.

Based on the long term chart, GTI is currently in the range trading of $12 to $18 for being conservative. Alternatively, this stock may hit the upward trading range of $24 if everything is on our side. The strong support is currently at the $12.

 

The best time to buy for this stock is on next Wednesday which is on the fourth day since the beginning of the thunderous drop for this stock. The reason why is the short seller who borrowed heavily to short this stock may have to cover their position on the third day after which is on next Tuesday.

The reason I am recommending to buy on the 4th day because it is risk free. As on the fourth day, this stock is more stable after the strong sell off, however, if the fourth day continues to go down heavily, then you should hold your purchase as the new round of short selling activity may arised.

As for the target for GTI, I am expecting at least a 18% gain from the current price of around $12.80 to the target price of $15.20 level. Based on the window gap above, the hell window for this stock has been opened and it is only right that it must be closed back. In order to close this window of hell, GTI must reach the $15 at least. The reason why I believe that this window of hell will be closed back sooner or later is due to the fact that GTI is a strong growth fundamental stock. (kindly refer to the quarterly earning below for the explaination)

As for me, I am risk tolerance, therefore I may initiate my purchase immediately on the coming Monday for a higher profit buy higher risk.

 Based on the quarterly earning growth, honestly, GTI is not performing as expected. It does not show a good growth in its quarterly earning but it does beat the analyst estimates on the past 11 quarters earning. On the current reported quarterly earning on Feb 21, 2012, it does beat the estimates by 1 cent. Although it is not substantial, but it does show something. As a result after the earning releases, GTI was beaten to hell by the stock operators and speculators. Is GTI turbo well deserve to be beaten like that. No, I dont think so.

Based on the yearly earning, GTI is expecting to report a yearly earniing of $1.09 on 2012. As the world economy continues to improve, I would expect the coming earning to be strong influenced as well. I am predicting more or less, GTI products will be demanded as GTI supply many of its product to many different industry. (Due to the time constraint, I did not analyze into details on the business plan and growth for GTI, however, I am expecting that it will out perform in the coming quarters).

Disclosure: After 2 straight wins for MGM (19%) and ALU (14%), I must be more careful on my 3rd bet. I am currently fully loaded in cash and I may initiate a long position on GTI in the coming Mondays. When I buy GTI in coming Mondays, as usual, it will be an all in for GTI. I am also expecting at least a 10% gain for GTI based on my estimated entry price at $12.90 on the coming Monday.

Good luck and God Bless - if there is any.

With Great Technical Skills Comes Great Profit - ("ALU") $10,000

I remember in the Spiderman Movie, his father told Spiderman "With Great Power Comes Great Responsibility", this is the reason why I use the title "With Great Technical Skills Comes Great Profit". This saying is definetely truth for me and it is proven.

In my previous post, I have advised all my readers to buy at the third day of consolidation - http://www.themarketoracle.blogspot.com/2012/02/is-it-time-to-buy-alcatel-lucent-alu.html for a risk free profit. Please refer to my last post on reason why I am all in and positive on this stock.

As for me, I am a risk taker, again as per my previous trade, I have dump all my money and put all my egg is this Alcatel Lucent ("ALU") basket. There is no easy money out there, huge profit comes with huge risk. Everything have its up and down. What goes up will come down and vice versa. I believe it is time for ALU to rally and double m capital.

Based on the short term chart, 2 important indicators point to a overbought position, Stochastic and Bollinger Band, and 1 indicators, MACD, points to a strong upward move position for ALU. Eventhough 2 of my favorite technical indicators are pointing that ALU might head lower in the future, but it is of no big deal for me as I am in ALU for a long term and looking at doubling my capital with ALU.
I believe ALU will move higher in the future as all the high volume during the past six days have been fully absorbed and consolidated.


Based on the long term chart, the long term resistance is at $4.00. I believe with the recent earning growth and business turnaround strategy that is working prefectly, ALU is poses to break record profit and analyst estimates in the coming quarter. This is definetely a stock worth buying for me, especially for those who wants to double their capital or saving within the next few years time.

Disclosure: I am currently all in for ALU. I have put all my eggs in Alcatel Lucent Basket. I have put all my investment and my hard earned money into ALU. I am currently up by $10,000 about 16% gain in less than 7 days. In the coming future, I am expecting my profit to double. However, if I sense something wrong, I will not hestitate to sell my stock immediately or if I see a sudden extreme surge in ALU stock, I will sell into strength. However, all my action and my trade will be posted only here exclusively at http://www.themarketoracle.blogspot.com/

Is It Time to Buy Alcatel-Lucent ("ALU") Now!

Updated Today:

 I have discover a very interesting theory a minute ago. I think it will help in our trading decision on ALU, that is why I must share with you all immediately. On Feb 10, 2011, when ALU announced a strong earning of $0.19 beating analyst estimate at $0.16, ALU rally more than 20% as per the chart below: -

After ALU rally more than 20% on the day of the announcement on the superb earning, ALU gap higher by 20% (as per the black arrow above). What happen after that? ALU continue to climb more than a whopping 45%. Thereafter, ALU share started to drop after the slowdown in earning growth announcement on May 2011 onward.

The important thing that I would like to highlight is that eventhough ALU have rally more than 13% on the recent good annoucement, I believe ALU rally might not stop here. I believe there is still another at least 30% rally for ALU.

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Alcatel-Lucent Business Model

I have been looking at Alcatel-Lucent ("ALU") for a very long time since it was plunging furiously from the high of around $6.00 in 2011 April. ALU seems like dropping all the way towards bankruptcy. But is it justifiable for this once good stock to be punished like that. The answer is no. ALU is not going into bankruptcy for the near future. Instead the recent quarterly earning has shown a very good result with good growth in its quarterly earning.

So the important question is "Is It a Good Time to Jump Into ALU now, after yesterday rally of more than 13% to $2.19". The answer is a big yes with 99% chances it will be hitting the level of $2.8 for least a 20% gain in the coming future. However, there is still a 1% chances that ALU will not perform as expected. So how do we determine the 1% chance. The answer for the 1% will be revealed in the next 3 days time.

The reason why we will know the answer in the next 3 trading days because tonight closing at $2.19 up $0.25 cents for a 13% gained with a huge volume will have to be fully absorbed by the market. All those long contra player will have to cover their long position before the next upward move will be materialize. In other words, those who jump in on credit today will have to pay up for their stock in 3 days time, if they don't have the money to pay up for their stock, then they will have to sell on the 3rd day. You will see the result at the end of the third day after lunch hour or late afternoon.


Based on the long term chart, the first and important resistance is at $2.80. If ALU manages to convincingly penetrate this level, then the next level to target is at $3.90 level. I believe the $3.90 level will be penetrated in the long run, but you must be patience and to hold this stock for a long period of at least 1 year and above.

Based on the quarterly result from Google Finance, ALU has indeed improve tremendously in its revenue and also operating income. I believe overall the business turn around plan for ALU is definetely working and we could see more improvement of ALU revenue and operating income for the coming future. This stock is definetely a buy based on the fundamental analysis, I would not buy a stock if it goes up by 15% or more without any fundamental justification. Even though, before I initiate any trade, I will look and rely on technical analysis, I would also look at the quarterly earning growth as I believe it is important as well.

Disclosure: Currently I do not hold any stock in ALU, however, I might initate a buy on this stock after the next 3 days and provieded that ALU stays above the the $2.10. However, if ALU failed to hold up at least the $2.00 level, then I will not initiate a buy on this stock.

For more accurate and real time disclosure in the future, kindly visit my blog regularly because I will immediately post my online statement which I have initiated a buy position for ALU in the coming post.