Monday, January 30, 2012

Melco Crown Entertainment, Should I Cut My Losses Now?

Update after market close:
Terrible day, Mpel down a whopping 7.42% at $10.85. However, I still believe that over the long run Mpel will test it long term resistance at $16 to form a double bottom.
Based on the after market analysis of Mpel, I believe that Mpel will have another 1 day of consolidation before it will start moving up again. The immediate support level which is at the mid of Bollinger Band now  is very important to determine the future price of this stock. If this support fail, then Mpel might be going down even more to the previously resistance turn support at the $10.30 level. I no longer have any capital in hand, if I have, I definetely show hand to scoop as many stock as possible which it is still attractively price. i believe that the whopping crushing of Mpel yesterday is to shake off the weak player or the contra player our of this stock before it continues its run up ahead. This is a very crucial time at this moment because the decision that I will make in the next couples of day will resulted in me earning few thousands more or few thousands less. At this point in time, I really can't afford to lose and I did not have the intention to give in and cut loss for this trade.

Disclosure: I have not sold Mpel on today's tumbling, I am still holding on tightly to this stock. As of now, i can only rely on O Mighty God to have mercy on me. May god have mercy on me! God bless!

It is a very terrible day for me!

It is unbelievable, at first I was up by 4%-6% now I am down by 3-4%, all this action happened in just a matter of 2 days infact. It is indeed a wild ride and not for the faint hearted. As I have mentioned in my previous post, I cannot afford to lose money now as I have personal commitment to fulfill into. This is a really bad day for me. I enter Mpel at the price of $11.25 and now the price is $10.81 with roughly a 3% lost. Now the biggest question is should I cut my losses now or should I wait for the rebound? If I were to wait for the rebound, I might be getting myself in deep water as Mpel might continues it's ride down. If I cut my losses now, I will lose around $3,000. At this point in time, I can't afford to lose money.

But thankfully to my many years of experience in trading this wild market has make me into a calmer and wiser person.
Based on the technical analysis, the uptrend is still intact. I believe today big down is the work of the stock operators to scare away the speculators who are long in this stock. The speculators will take this opportunity to cover their long position before the next uptrent to continue. Afterall, this stock has been moving from the low of $8.80 to the current level of %11.80 (an increase of 34%) before today correction bring it down to the $10.70 level (huge drop of 8.5%).

I did not expect a big sudden drop in a day as I do not have any chance at all to sell since the Mpel started trading this morning. If I choose to cut loss now, then it is definetely a loss for me. However, I am a swing trader and I believe that the current swing for Mpel is still up.

It is indeed a terrible day for me, at this point in time, I do not have any choice but continue to ride this stock as I believe that the current rally for MPEL is not over yet.

Sunday, January 29, 2012

Atmel Corporation! Help me!

I have recently received an email from an investor and also a frequent visitor to my humble blog. His name is Danny, he has invested in Atmel and is currently down by $2000. That is a lot of money to my and worth about few good Invicta' Watches at Amazon.

Anyway, as an author and founder of my humble blog, The Market Oracle, my aim is to help as many people as I can with my knowledge, skill and experience that I have gained after more than 13 years trading in the market.

His question is should he hold this stock through 2012. First of all, I did not know what is his entry price, but I figure it out, it should be at $11.20 level based on the current price of around $9.6 (based on 15% loses), for him to lost around $2,000.

Well, I promise you Danny, I will try my very best to honestly tell you what you should do now. As usual, I will first analyze the Long Term Chart follow by the Short Term Chart. I will then look at the fundamental side by analyzing the quarterly earning growth.

 Email from Danny

Based on the long term chart above, the strong support for Atmel is at the $8. The 1st resistance for Atmel is at the $12 level. Looking at the chart above, I believe that Atmel have a chance to test the first resistance at $12 based on the current market situation. The current US market is growing stronger day by day. Even though there are many negative news coming from Europe and also China, however, it does not stop DJIA from rallying day after day. I believe that the overall market is still strong and have lots of room to grow further.

Based on the short term chart, currently Atmel is in an upward trend. I believe this upwad trend will last a little longer as most of the upward move did pause for a slight consolidation. If Atmel is moving up fast and strong without consolidation in between, then I am dead worried, cause I believe the faster this stock go up, the faster it will come down as well. If I am correct, I believe that next week, Atmel will head to the $11 at least. The current 2 important technical indicators, the MACD and Stochastic, even though do shown a little negative signal, I believe that it is not a crucial issue here, because the negative indicators are merely pointing towards a short term consolidation move for Atmel.

Based on the quarterly earning for Atmel, Atmel is showing stable growth ahead. As long as it didnt show losses, it should be a safe haven stock to invest in. Even though the future forecase quarterly earning for Atmel is flat, but I believe that the super touch screen technology that Atmel supplies to many smart phone and tablet company is right on track for the future growth and potential of the company.

I believe that if the US market continues its upward move, I believe that many stocks will continue to surge further which includes Atmel. There a lot's of money which have yet to enter the market will do so in the coming month and bring the whole market to the pre crisis level.

Therefore,  my advise is to hold and Atmel and continue to ride this stock to the $16 level based on your entry price at around $11.20 for a 40% gained. It is definetely not a good time to surrender and sell this stock for a loss of $2,000. Continue to ride this stock and play based on range trading of between $8 and $12.

Good luck and god bless.

Disclosure: - I currently do not hold any stock in Atmel but may initiate an entry position if the Atmel did not perform as I have analyzed and if Atmel move to the important support of $8.00. If Atmel move downward and hit $8.00, it is definetely a big buy for me.

Saturday, January 28, 2012

Melco Crown Entertainment Take Profit or Let Profit Run?

I am currently having a dilemma and in a difficult situation where the decision that I make next will decide whether I will have another few thousand or ten over thousand. As of the closing price of $11.72 last friday, I am not up by 4.18% and making around $2,726. If I am not wise or careful in my next decision, I will not only lost my gain but I will lose my capital as well. Therefore, I now need to make a very important detail analysis on the next movement for Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL). I must not be wrong on this one, as I need to make more capital gain for personal reason.

Based on the chart above, this stock might be heading towards the resistance of $16 or the support of $8.5. If somebody out there who can give me an accurate 100% answer, then it will solve my dilemma and my worry for this weekend. But I believe only god can give me an answer, not even Warren Buffet or Albert Einstein. I am particularly worry about the Stochastic signal which point to a very negative movement for MPEL. It is showing that both lines appear to meet at the top and moving downward for consolidation as it is currently overbought. Based on my experience, I would say that at least 60% of the time, stochastic proved to be a realiable signal to point the future movement of the stock.

As for the close up candlestick analysis, it is showing an important consolidation pattern for MPEL. The next 2 or 3 candlesticks is very important as it will determine whether MPEL is actually in the consolidation and will move up afterward, or it will lead MPEL to the start of a correction downtrend which will bring the stock to the $8.50 support level.
However, based on the MPEL current candlestick chart pattern which resemble the bullish mat hold, MPEL will be in the small correction mode for another 2 days, before it will convincingly lead another round of rally to push it above the $12 level.

Based on my knowledge and experience trading the NYSE and NASDAQ, I am very convinced that the current rally is not over yet. DJIA still have more room to grow. Over the long term, I believe that MPEL will continue its upward rise to test the resistance of $16 and will eventually surpass it and move to the new high. My prediction is not solely based on the technical analysis but fundamental as well. The casino business for MPEL in China continues to grow quarter over quarter and no one really knows how lond this growth may continue. As the whole China is a very big market and more people are getting richer and the chinese people really like to gamble and treat it as their favorite pass time. Until their is a concrete evidence pointing to a real slowdown in MPEL such as the decrease in the quarterly revenue, I believe that MPEL will continue its upward move to the next unseen level.

Disclosure: I am currently show hand in MPEL and have invested every single penny that I have in MPEL. I am also expecting at least a 10% profit for this stock in the coming future and no planning to cut my profit in the coming next 2 trades.

Thursday, January 26, 2012

What Now for Cisco?

 I have traded Cisco stock for several times now. I have made some money and lost some on this stock. For those who are invested in this stock, I hope that my brief analysis in this post will be able to help you in your decision making on whether to buy more or take profit for this stock.

Cisco has been moving upward aggresively since Aug 2011 at around $14 to the current level of $20. It is a whopping 40% gain. To me it is a huge gain and profit taking, long covering and consolidation for this stock look inevitable.
Based on the long term chart, Cisco has broken the downward range trading and is now going into a smooth uptrend move. I believe this uptrend move might be a long term one, however, a meaningful consolidation for this stock is a must for this stock to continue its uptrend strongly.
Based on the short term chart, it appears that Cisco is moving into a consolidation move with the short term target at $17.20. I believe the $17.20 is a strong support level for Cisco and one should plan an entry at this level if you are interested to go into this stock.
My target for Cisco at $17.20 is well supported by 2 important technical indicators which is the MACD and Stochastic, both are currently showing an overbought position for Cisco and both indicators are showing the blue line is moving downward to consolidate.

Based on the earning analysis for Cisco, it looks great in both quarterly and yearly growth. With the EPS of $1.77 for 2012, Csco is currently trading at slight above the PE ratio of 10. It is a very good PE ratio for a stable and a slow but strong revenue growth company.

Even though the earning growth for Cisco is a slow one, but it is a good fundamental company to invest in for a long run especially with the hugh cash in hand.

I have no positions in Cisco and do not intend to trade Cisco in the coming future as I am currently show hand in Melco Crown (MPEL).

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Melco Crown Entertainment (MPEL) Rally to Continue!

Happy Chinese New Year! Greeting from the The Market Oracle!

 The Majestic Development from Melco Crown in Cotai

After my first encounter with MPEL last year, I have recently reenter MPEL. The reasons I am making the decision to reenter MPEL is overall the world markets especially for the US Market are improving, the never ending revenue growth in Macau, increasing Earning Per Share (EPS) and the tecnical and fundamental analysis as per this post. Based on long term chart above, MPEL has recently broken the long term down trend line. The MACD indicator is currently pointing a further upward move for MPEL and it is currently not oversold yet. The stochastic on the other hand is showing a slightly overbought position and a negative downtrend for this stock.

MPEL current formation is similar to the Descending Triangle Formation as the above. Even though, the chances is high for MPEL to follow the rules of Descending Triangle Formation and head lower after the consolidation, I am betting it will go the opposite way instead.

Based on the short term chart analysis, I am predicting that Mpel will retest the previous high of $16 and possibly to move higher after that. As of current, most of the technical indicators is pointing to an upward move for this stock, except for stochastic which shows an overbought position for this stock. One thing that I am concerned is the low volume in the rise up which means that the upward move is not strong. For the rally to be strong, we need a strong volume to justify it.

Quarterly data shown a strong improvement quarter over quarter. I am expecting the next quarter revenue will be even higher especially the Lunar New Year will bring all the gambler to speculate crazily.

Disclosure: I am currently all in at $11.25 with a total stocks of 5,800 and I am expecting a profit of 20%-30% at least for this trade.

Saturday, January 21, 2012

Buy Supervalu Inc (SVU) for a 20% Profit - January 21,2012

Above Picture has been modified from the Original Picture to make it look more interesting in my Blog and to better suit the title for this post.

Today I am recommending a buy on Supervalu Inc (SVU) for a 20% profit. Even though I am recommending a buy on SVU, but I didn't recommend to buy now. As I believe SVU will tumble a little more before we should plan our entry.

Based on the long term chart above, even though some might argue that SVU is a dying stock with falling revenue from year to year, however, the chances of making good money on this stock is also available. As you can see on the above long term chart for SVU, I have sketches on the percentage profit opportunity for every downturn movement on this stock. If you plan your entry correctly and wisely after every downward move, you will be able to make a percentage profit gain ranging from 15% to 50%.
Therefore timing the perfect entry is very important in order to make good money for this stock.

Based on the short term chart for Supervalu, the 2 important technical indicators are showing bearish signal and more downward move for Supervalu. Supervalu has recently experiencing a sharp downward move from $8.4 level to the current level of $6.9 which is around 20% drop. However, based on the recent candlestick move (bearish engulfing pattern), it shows that SVU is still very bearish and may be heading to test the all time low at $6.3. Based on the analysis for the short term chart, the perfect entry will be the long time support at $6.3 level.

Based on the quarterly earning, SVU does show a reduction in earning from the previous years quarter compare to the recent quarters. However, signs are pointing that SVU earning is currently stabilizing and chances of improving is higher.

The recent sudden furious dropped in SVU stock price is mainly due to the goodwill and intangible asset impairment charges which resulted on expected loss of $2.58 to $2.48. Well, my opinion is this goodwill and intangible asset impairment charges is not a big deal for me as SVU is still profitable and also maintaining a good healthy dividend payout.

Disclosure: I did not hold any stock in SVU but may plan my entry in the next couple of days when the price is right.

Friday, January 20, 2012

Sold MGM for a Profit of $ 10,819

 Lets Celebrate together for My Recent Wnning of $10,819 or 20% gained

My Recent Winning of MGM bought at an average price of $10.67 and sold at an average price of $12.80 during the recent new high. My realized gain to be be exact amounted to $10,819 for a trading period of not more than 2 months.

The reason why I am selling the MGM is I believe that MGM is overbought and it is overdue for a correction. From a low of $9, MGM has been climbing steadily all the way up to the current level at $12.80. It is a whooping gain of more than 40% if you would have bought at the $9 level.

Moreover, the stochastic indicator, an important indicator, already shown that MGM stock is overbought and getting bearish. Eventhought the MACD indicator is still showing positive sign, however, based on my many years of experience, I believe that it is just a matter of time before the blue line will cross over the red line (as per my own drawing above) and push MGM into the bearish zone for a technical correction.

MGM is currently going through a strong and steady uptrend, however, after a run up of more than 40% from the recent low, technical correction is inevitable. This stock is due for a correction and should be retraced to the $10.90 at least before any convincingly uptrend to proceed futher. Eventhough, there is chances I might be wrong for selling too early, but it is not worth taking this risk as I am currently not in a risk tolerance position due to my personal reason.
It should also happened because it is time for the speculators to cover back their long position in this stock and to restart afresh again for the next upward move.

Well, when it happened, I will be there to watch it like an eagle hawk eye and to strike on MGM again when the price is right. Another 2 stocks that I am currently looking at after a huge sell down is Electronic Art and Supervalu Inc.

Thursday, January 19, 2012

Electronic Art Will Double in the Near Future

The Above Title is an attention grabber. The real content and analysis from me for EA is as per below:

Electronic Art (EA) is a company that does no need any introduction for the gamers out there. Chances are your favorite games that you play on your Playstation and X Box consoles are produced by Electronic Art.

As for myself I am hook into EA Sports Fifa Soccer.

I have recently come across an article from Localized USA. It announces on the EA target price by various famous Investment Analysts. The summary of the analysts target price for EA are as per below:

Brean Murray                    Buy                     $22.00   Jan 19, 2012
Deutsche Bank                  Sell                     $14.00   Jan 13, 2012
Sterne Agee                       Buy                    $27.00   Dec 27, 2012
Piper Jaffray                      Overweight        $31.00   Dec 27, 2012

The target price ranges from a whopping high of $ 31.00 to a crazily low of $ 14.00. All the stock analysts above is from a high income earner, with a good background coming from big investment company in the US.

As for me, I am going to set my target price as well for EA. However, I am just a nobody blogger from a not famous country working with a local unknown company. Let’s see whether my target price for EA will be better than those 4 investment analysts up there.

Based on the long term chart, EA is a perfect stock for Swing Trader out there. The price for EA frequented the support of $14 to the $23 range for quite a number of time. If you bought at $14 and ride all the way up to $23, you would have make around 64% gain.
The current important technical indicators such as MACD and Stochastic coupled with Bollinger Band are pointing to a further for EA. EA is also showing a double top pattern which is extremely bearish. To complete the double top EA will need to drop all the way to the important support of $15. Therefore, as for the long term chart analysis, I am giving a target price of EA at $15 for the near future.

As for the short term chart, I am also giving a target price of $15 as EA will need to close back the window ($15-$17) that it has left open since  Feb 2011. EA also currently experiencing a strong downward move as every downward move are coupled with strong volume. It means that sellers remain very strong at the moment. Therefore, I am strongly expecting EA to visit the $15 level in the very near future.

 As for the fundamental analysis on the earning of EA, based on the quarterly earning, EA is experiencing a phenomena growth in earning compare with the previous year. It the projected quarterly earning estimates are accurate as per the above, EA is definitely a safe haven stock to invest if the price is right.

I will invest in EA if the price is right; the right price for me based on my technical and fundamental analysis is at $15 level. I am very convinced that EA will eventually hit the $15 level for the next couple of weeks if not month.

Saturday, January 14, 2012

Dryships - A Ship that Almost Drown Me!

 George Economou - Chairman, President and Chief Executive Officer of Dryships

Some have labeled him as a crook, a mastermind that manage to convince the American Fund Management Company to part with their money. Many people hate him as they have lost their life saving investing in his company - Dryships.

Despite losing big money investing in his company, I did not blame him as it is all my decision and my instinct to invest in Dryships. The reason I am including this post in my blog is because I hope to remember my mistake and to remind me not to commit this silly mistake again in the coming future.

I have speculated Dryship at an entry price of $3.85. This is a very big mistake that I have made, as my instinct at that time is based purely on speculation coupled with some careless analysis of the chart. I made another mistake by following the herd during the capitulation process and sold at the rock bottom price of $2.40 instead of waiting for it to bounce back to the $2.40 level.

The mistake that I have made is thinking that $3.90 is a strong support and will never be broken. Even though, it was broken later, I did not let go my position instead holding on to it thinking that it will bounce back to the support level. However, it did not, it kept dropping furiously to the rock bottom price at $2.40.

Second mistake is I shall have wait for Dryship to convincingly break the downward trend line before I jump into this horrible ship.

This is a very big mistake that I have made for 2011 and I have to bear with it for a long time before it starts to fade off in my memory.

I hope that I won't repeat this silly and careless mistake again in 2012.

Thursday, January 12, 2012

MGM Resorts International What Now?

I have bought MGM at the attractive of $10.67. I thought that it was an attractive price at that point in time and the chart shows an uptrend movement. However, to my dismal the MGM stock price eventually drop down to the lowest point at $9. Do I press the panic button and sell? No! I keep my calm and cool as I believe that eventually the price will go up back to the important resistance at $16 (please refer to my previous post at

As of writing now, MGM has already reached $11.96 for a 12% gained for me. Now the important decision here for me is when should I sell MGM and take profit.

Currently the Victory is Mine!

Current Profit at the MGM price of $11.96 is $6,535

Based on my experience and knowledge, I believe the time is not ripe yet to take profit. I will wait until all the speculators who have chased the stock upward increase the adrenaline rush and make a big push ahead. That will be the time when I will take profit. When there is a big push ahead due to the unreasonable behavior of herd, the price will eventually correct itself before any speculators can continue to push this stock upward to the price of $16. As many speculators will have to cover long their position.

That's it for now, I will update all again when I have sold this stock for the maximum profit, I hope.


Wednesday, January 4, 2012

MGM International to Double In 2012

 The Majestic MGM City Center in Los Angeles
 The Front Entrance View of City Center in Las Vegas

Well it has been more than 7 months since my last analysis on March, 2011. Well, I am back now, and this time, I am going to analyze MGM International. The title for this post may be a little too much as, I believe, it is indeed very tough for MGM to double in price for 2012. The title is indeed to catch your attention for it. However, I am determine to speculate MGM stock based on the range trading from $9 to $16.

Based on the long term chart, MGM is currently showing a side way trend with price ranging from the resistance at $16 and the support $9. As can be seen from the chart above, MGM has tried 3 attempt to break the upward resistance of $16 but failed miserably. For those who are in this for a long term and expect price to double or quadruple, I will suggest to go in if it manage to break the resistance $16 level and the $16 level became a support. Based on the above chart, for the short term, I am expecting MGM to retest the resistance at $16. Going in at current price of around $10-$11, one is expecting to make more than 40% it can climb up and test the resistance of $16. Both MACD and Stochastic indicators do not really show any major meaning for MGM next movement.

 As per the short term chart indication, it looks very positive. I am particularly very interested in the candlestick formation as per the red circle above. For me, I name it "staircase" pattern which is very strong upward indication in the short run. I have seen many candlestick pattern such as that above and 90% of the time, the stocks will continue its upward movement.

Based on the MACD indication, it does indicates that MGM will continue its upward move as it is currently still way below the overbought level.

As per the stochastic indicator, it does show a little negative view as it touches the 80% line above which indicates a slight overbought situation. However, as long as the blue line did not cross below the red line and both line moving downward, it is still an upward trend for me.

As for the volume indication during the last 4 days, I particularly like the strong upward push in high volume as per shown on the arrow in the above chart, which is then follow by 3 low volume indication. It means that the upward push is currently consolidating with low volume for 3 days, before another upward push with strong volume to prevail.

 Extract from CNBC

As from the Sales Revenue for MGM for the last quarter, I am very please as it does show a big jump from $1.8 billion to $2.2 billion. It looks superbly good to me. If MGM can continue to show Sales Revenue increased as per the last quarter, I am very convince that MGM stock price will not only double but quadruple. Even though MGM still shown a negative 25 cents per share, I am convince that it will break even or turn to profit, if the magnificent performance for MGM to continue.

For the market news on this stock, I have few articles and analyst upgrade for this stock. This is also one of the reason which prompted me to go and bought around 70% of my cash holding in this stock. Most of the news indicated that MGM is currently turning around with substantial growth in revenue for the coming months. MGM largest investment in City Center Las Vegas has also started to bear fruit with increasing RevPAR ("Revenue Per Available Room") improve tremendously. Other analyst pointed that the Jewel of the Crown business in Macau is also performing very well and also manage to increase its revenue percentage as compared with competitors such as LVS, Melco Crown, and Wynn. It means that it is actually stealing more and more customer from its competitors which is a very positive indication for MGM stocks.

I have bought MGM International at an average price of around $10.70. I am expecting MGM to move at least to $14 before it starts to consolidate and then we should decide again based on the chart at the point in time. 

For those who want to follow me and bet on this stock. You can go in at any price below $11 for a short term gain of around 25% at least.

Although I am not from any licensed brokerage firm or famous analyst in the top financial firms, but I am confidence that I will make profit this time on MGM. I did not receive a single cents or goodies from anybody, unlike those licensed brokerage or analyst out there, I am analyzing this stock MGM International purely based on my fate and believe on my many years of investing in the ever turbulence stock market world.

Follow as you wish. Last but not least, Happy New Year and good luck on trading. May you double your profit for 2012. All the best!!!!!!
Related Posts Plugin for WordPress, Blogger...