Sunday, February 26, 2012

100% Profit Guaranteed Stock to Buy - Graftech International ("GTI")

Is there anything such as profit guaranteed and risk free stock to buy? Yes, in The Market Oracle, there is such thing. Of course it is not the above Volkswagon GTI silly! It is none other than Graftech International ("GTI"). The stock code was easy remembered by me as a fan of Volkswagon GTI. I was surfing the Charting Software for a stock to buy next week after I have sold off my position in ALU for around 14% profit. GTI came into my radar after I sold a huge sold of a 2 days ago.

Anyway, anyhow, here goes my analysis for this potential stock - GTI.
Based on the long term chart, GTI is currently in the range trading of $12 to $18 for being conservative. Alternatively, this stock may hit the upward trading range of $24 if everything is on our side. The strong support is currently at the $12.
The best time to buy for this stock is on next Wednesday which is on the fourth day since the beginning of the thunderous drop for this stock. The reason why is the short seller who borrowed heavily to short this stock may have to cover their position on the third day after which is on next Tuesday.

The reason I am recommending to buy on the 4th day because it is risk free. As on the fourth day, this stock is more stable after the strong sell off, however, if the fourth day continues to go down heavily, then you should hold your purchase as the new round of short selling activity may arised.

As for the target for GTI, I am expecting at least a 18% gain from the current price of around $12.80 to the target price of $15.20 level. Based on the window gap above, the hell window for this stock has been opened and it is only right that it must be closed back. In order to close this window of hell, GTI must reach the $15 at least. The reason why I believe that this window of hell will be closed back sooner or later is due to the fact that GTI is a strong growth fundamental stock. (kindly refer to the quarterly earning below for the explaination)

As for me, I am risk tolerance, therefore I may initiate my purchase immediately on the coming Monday for a higher profit buy higher risk.
 Based on the quarterly earning growth, honestly, GTI is not performing as expected. It does not show a good growth in its quarterly earning but it does beat the analyst estimates on the past 11 quarters earning. On the current reported quarterly earning on Feb 21, 2012, it does beat the estimates by 1 cent. Although it is not substantial, but it does show something. As a result after the earning releases, GTI was beaten to hell by the stock operators and speculators. Is GTI turbo well deserve to be beaten like that. No, I dont think so.
Based on the yearly earning, GTI is expecting to report a yearly earniing of $1.09 on 2012. As the world economy continues to improve, I would expect the coming earning to be strong influenced as well. I am predicting more or less, GTI products will be demanded as GTI supply many of its product to many different industry. (Due to the time constraint, I did not analyze into details on the business plan and growth for GTI, however, I am expecting that it will out perform in the coming quarters).

Disclosure: After 2 straight wins for MGM (19%) and ALU (14%), I must be more careful on my 3rd bet. I am currently fully loaded in cash and I may initiate a long position on GTI in the coming Mondays. When I buy GTI in coming Mondays, as usual, it will be an all in for GTI. I am also expecting at least a 10% gain for GTI based on my estimated entry price at $12.90 on the coming Monday.

Good luck and God Bless - if there is any.

1 comment:

  1. The only company I really like in the automotive area is ford. Ford will be the number 1 automotive company in less than ten years.


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