Sunday, February 5, 2012

Melco Crown Entertainment to Continue its Second Upward Wave

As of today, I have earned around $5,000 from my trade in Melco Crown Entertainment ("Mpel") stock. So what should I do now after earning $5,000? Should I realized my gain and then head to Amazon website and pick up few more Invicta Diver and Speedway watches? One of my regular visitor to this blog - Dale, have asked why I sold my MGM stock and bought Mpel, wouldn't it be more profitable if I would have stayed with my MGM investment? One question after another, looks like there are never ending questions with no one accurate answer to them. In my today's post I will answer all the hard questions above.

So far I am dead right predicting on the every move on Mpel based on my previous few posts on Mpel. Am I a god or a genius, I am none of both. I am just a regularly trader who is trying to make some money in my Mpel trade. I am a regular guy just like you, my loyal blog reader. You too can earn the easy money and predict the movement of Mpel as accurate as me and even beat me.

I have visited Macau in 2009, when I visited at that time, the City of Dream by Mpel is still in the opening stage. There are not many people there at that time. Now, I believe things have took a turned in City of Dream, the last time I have checked the news on City of Dream, people are flocking there like nobody business, it is now pact with people. What a nicely taken picture above. With its business 100% focus in the strong Macau growth, I believe Mpel is indeed the future.
 Based on the short term chart, Mpel has already broke the important resistance of $12. Both my favorite important indicators are showing a fresh upward signal for Mpel. Initially, both indicators have started to point downward movement for Mpel, however, in the latest few days closing, both the technical indicators have changed and now it points to a fresh upward move for Mpel. Please refer to my highlighted red circle as per the above chart. Also, the huge volume on the 2 volume indicators have been absorbed without any problem.

Based on the long term chart, I am predicting that Mpel will 3 upward wave to the year long resistance of $16. After the 3 waves, then we will decided what is next as I will be analyzing the chart at that future point in time. We are currently in the beginning of the 2nd upward trend which will take Mpel to the $14 level and then consolidate slightly and being the next wave which will take Mpel to the $16 level.

However, all these can change if the next quarterly on the Feb 9, 2012. On Feb 9, 2012, I believe this stock will have either tumble or jump forward after the earning release. For those who have insider information, I believe earning at least 10% is not a problem. I do not have insider information on Mpel, what I have is my skill to correctly predict Mpel daily stock movement.

Another important news that concerned me a lot is that on Jan 31, 2012, some analyst reported that Mpel has lose market share of around 2% in January. I do not know whether the news is true or not, and I do not know to what extend this news will impact the stock price on the quarterly earning release on Feb 9, 2012. However, I believe that Mpel will not have a high impact because the Mpel eventually recover back around 7% after this unfortunate news.

Well as for my reader Dale, the reason I have shifted all my investment from MGM into Mpel is because of the following:
1) MGM is a very risky stock with high debt position, any negative news on its debt position will easily make MGM to tumble 10% or more.
2) Even though MGM business is turning around with high revenue growth reported quarter over quarter, MGM is currently still making losses until based on analyst estimates it is does not make profit even until 2013.
3) I have relied on my technical analysis skill, however, I still do not ignore my fundamental analysis as I believe, fundamental analysis such as the financial statements of the stock will impact the long term movement of the price. It will definitely affect the long term trend of the stocks.

Even though I am deeply saddened by my move from MGM to Mpel, as of current I have earned less around 3-4% or around $3,000-$4,000 more from my shift, however, I have not regretted my move as I believe, in the coming future, Mpel can easily overtake MGM in price. Also, by selling MGM, I have managed to scoop up more stock in Mpel as at the point in time, MGM stock price is more higher than Mpel price.

The important date that I am now curiously waiting for is Feb 9, 2012, as it will be a very date where it will move the stock price up as predicted in this posting.
However, if I am wrong, I believe, that Mpel in the long run is still a viable and good stock to be heavily invested into.

Disclosure: Currently I am all invested Mpel stock, I have invested every single penny that I have in Mpel. Therefore, currently I do not longer hold any cash position and I intend to go through this month expenses through my credit card.  I am also expecting that all the prediction in this post about Mpel stock price will come true.


Melco Crown Entertainment Announces Earnings Release Date

NEW YORK, Feb 1, 2012 (GlobeNewswire via COMTEX) -- Melco Crown Entertainment Limited (sehk:6883) /quotes/zigman/104187/quotes/nls/mpel MPEL -0.37% , a developer and owner of casino gaming and entertainment resort facilities focused on the Macau market, today announces that it will file its fourth quarter and full year results for 2011 on Form 6-K with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission on February 9, 2012, to be followed by a conference call on the same day at 8:30 a.m. Eastern Time (or 9:30 p.m. Hong Kong Time). 

Melco Crown Leads Casino Stock Declines: Hong Kong Mover

January 31, 2012, 7:20 PM EST
By Vinicy Chan
Jan. 31 (Bloomberg) -- Melco Crown Entertainment Ltd., the casino venture between Lawrence Ho and Australian billionaire James Packer, dropped the most in seven weeks, leading gambling stock declines in Hong Kong trading.
Melco Crown slid as much as 5.6 percent to HK$28.10, the biggest intraday drop since Dec. 9, before trading at HK$28.20 as of the 12 p.m. local time trading break. Rivals Wynn Macau Ltd., a unit of Las-Vegas based Wynn Resorts Ltd., sank 4.8 percent to HK$19.7, and SJM Holdings Ltd. declined 3.3 percent to HK$13.32.
“Melco Crown is losing market share to competitors; its market share in January is expected to drop by up to 2 percentage points on a monthly basis which may explain why it is leading the decline,” said Victor Yip, a Hong Kong-based analyst at UOB Kay Hian Ltd. Lawrence Ho is the son of Macau casino billionaire Stanley Ho.
Total gaming revenue for all Macau casino operators in January may be less robust than earlier estimates of as much as 28 billion patacas ($3.5 billion), Yip said. Melco Crown’s market share may drop to 12 percent in January from 14 percent in December, he said.
“Through our various channel checks, the revenue is expected to reach roughly 24 billion patacas,” Yip said.
Sands China Ltd., a unit of Las Vegas Sands Corp., said on Jan. 30 that visitors to its Macau casinos rose by 5 percent to 6 percent to more than 1 million during the Lunar New Year that took place between Jan. 23 and Jan. 29.
Sands China shares dipped 2.8 percent to HK$26.1. The stock has jumped 19 percent this year, outperforming the 10 percent gain in the Hong Kong benchmark Hang Seng Index.
Galaxy Entertainment Group, the company controlled by Hong Kong tycoon Lui Che-Woo, dropped 1.5 percent to HK$16.80.
--Editors: Stephanie Wong, Robert Fenner
--Editors: Stephanie Wong, Robert Fenner

Source (from Bloomberg website)



  1. I only play with Macau Casino stocks and this month is going to be a tough one. Last year we had a Chinese new year in February so the YOY comparison will not be good. Many analyst predict a slowdown in Macau Casino revenue and a growth of only 15% for the entire year.LVS is opening new casino and may take market share from Mpel. As of today Mpel has not received casino approval for Macau Studio City project. Good luck to you but if I was you I would sell ASAP. Market can't continue to climb higher without a pullback. Kind Regards, Z

  2. Hi Z, I have sold off my position yesterday at 11.71 for a small gain. please look at my latest post. Since you have experience trading in casino stock, i will appreciate if you could continue to drop over here and we can discuss amongst ourselves when is the next good entry point. thanks.



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